Forecasts show that Jericoacoara and Icaraizinho might be one of the safest place for you to be this winter, as a second wave of the Coronavirus is projected to be coming to several countries in the next months, especially those in the Northern hemisphere. Our area is an exception to the trend, with a projection of one of the lowest infection rates of the world by the end of the year.
The IHME, from the University of Washington, has established the golden standard for data aggregation, graphical reporting, statistical analysis, and offers the most accurate forecasting about the Covid-19 pandemic. It uses supercomputers and AI to process big-data collected from the entire world, and is predicting today that the second coronavirus wave might be even stronger than the first. Read the article from IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray, about the second wave.
In contrast, the numbers from the warm Brazilian state of Ceará, (where Jericoacoara and Icaraizinho are located) are already low, and continue to decrease every day, with no sign of second wave in the IHME forecasts. Since it is located in the southern hemisphere, where the seasons are opposed to Europe/North America, the warmer summer months are starting now. The current IHME projection is that the second coronavirus wave will increase the Global average of “daily deaths per 100,000” to 1.33 by the end of the year, while Ceará will decrease to 0.05 in the same period (26x lower).
Aside from weather and season factors impacting the transmission of infectious diseases, the excellence in management and transparency of the pandemic crisis in Ceará must also be recognized.
While the total Brazil numbers are still high, mainly due to bad results in other very populous states, Ceará became an “island of safety” inside Brazil. As direct flights to Fortaleza are returning, you can now fly directly to Ceará without any connection in other states of Brazil.
So if you are already anxious about having to face another period of isolation at home to protect yourself from the second wave, you might consider another alternative: to travel to where it is safe. Flights are coming back, wind is blowing strong as always, and waves are empty. And Brazil is cheaper than ever. It might be the best decision of your life in 2020.
See below detailed IHME forecasts for the future, comparing Ceará to other countries.
Important: The graph in this article is a static screenshot taken on October 4, 2020, of the projection comparing Ceará to the Global average. To view the current forecast/trend, follow this link, clear (x) the “Compare Ceará to” (it comes preloaded with the other Brazilian states) and type “Global” (to compare with the world) or the country/region which you want to compare. While the IHME tool allows to compare with any place in the world, we have decided to not include any continent or country-specific graph in this page, in respect to this sad moment that the many places in the world are facing. We hope that your country/area is not severely impacted.